The role of foresight in shaping technological innovation: a study of bioinputs in Argentina

Abstract

This article analyzes how expectations and projections for the future influence technological innovation processes, using the development and use of bioinputs in Argentina as a case study. Using the methodological approach of layered causal analysis proposed by Inayatullah (1998), the article examines the state, media, and technical discourses that shape the sociotechnical imaginaries surrounding this emerging technology. The study is based on an analysis of the Action Plan for the bioinputs sector prepared by the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries, interviews with professionals in the field, and a survey of specialized news.
The article identifies three predominant imaginaries—commercial, developmental, and socio-environmental justice—that operate as technological promises with performative capacity, guiding public policies, productive practices, and scientific trajectories. It is argued that these representations of the future not only legitimize current decisions but also actively contribute to their configuration. In this sense, bioinputs are presented as a strategic alternative to the dominant agrochemical model, with the potential to strengthen technological autonomy, food sovereignty and the international insertion of Argentina in the world-system.